By Dr. Roger Tutterow
T.他国民经济进入了2020年，增长良好。经济在2019年12月12日，经济增长了126个月，第二次世界大战后时代的最长扩大。本国国内生产总值（GDP）在2019年增长2.25％，预计2020年将以谦虚的速度越来越慢地升高。然而，地平线上存在一些风险。
首先，关注令人担忧的是，关税战争的贸易紧张局势可能对制造业和贸易部门构成威胁。其次，日益增长的是，中国的病毒正在蔓延，可能成为一个全球大流行。这两项结果都被视为2020年经济扩张的风险。虽然未意识到以前的担忧，但后者被证明是近几十年来成为第一个真正外源经济衰退的催化剂。
随着大流行，现在用Covid-19确定，蔓延到美国，经济活动在今年3月下降。第一季度，全国国内生产总值以5％的年度汇率合同。国家经济研究局确定了2月份作为最后一个经济扩张的高峰。然而，与第二季度的31.4％的下降相比，第一季度GDP收缩可忽略不计。
毫不奇怪，第二季度GDP的70％的下降是由于消费者支出的回调。其中一些减少是由于家庭自愿减少活动，以应对较低的消费者信心和劳动力市场软化。然而，大流行的影响是通过政府任务的封闭来放大，零售和酒店行业特别繁重 - 1月至4月之间的销售额超过22％。
With the reduction of retail activity, so too consumption of motor vehicles fell sharply. After finishing 2019 with sales in excess of 17 million units, domestic motor vehicle sales fell to just over 9 million in the Spring. This level matched that recorded during the “great recession” of 2008-09. However, sale surge back in the summer months and 2020 will likely end up with domestic sales averaging a bit under 15 million units for the year.
符合的产出萎缩,就业dropped as well. Between February and April 2020, nonfarm employment fell by 14.5 percent — most of it in April when payroll employment fell by over 20.7 million jobs. By November, over half of the employment reduction had been recovered with payrolls down by a more moderate 6.6 percent. However, the pace of employment recovery will soften as it will likely take until at least late 2021 to recoup the remainder of the job losses.
While the downward trajectory of the economy during the first half of the year is well known, several open questions remain about the pace and duration of recovery.
首先，重要的是要承认，大流行的经济学从属于病毒的流行病学。在过去的流行病中，人群忍受了几个感染波。实际上，似乎另一个感染于2020年第四季度生效。但是，在这方面存在着重要的好消息。几家制药公司报告了11月的临床试验非常有前途的临床试验。此外，许多医学专家认为Covid-19病毒相对稳定，降低病毒将以减少疫苗和治疗剂疗效的方式变异的可能性。
Second, while there has been significant discussion regarding the merits and effects of government-mandated shutdowns, it is also worth noting that there are a variety of households and businesses who have voluntarily restricted activity throughout the year.
第三，有关经济如何在与两个“悬崖”击中的情况下，仍然存在开放的问题 - 财政和忍耐。
In response to the pandemic recession, substantial fiscal and monetary stimulus was provided. Beginning in March, the Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates to zero and launched a variety of credit facilities designed to inject liquidity into virtually every corner of the negotiable debt markets. The “Fed” has been clear that it plans to keep monetary policy accommodative throughout 2021 and likely beyond. While that translates into lower cost for debt, economic uncertainties will still weigh upon access to credit.
在财政方面，提供了各种刺激计划。这些包括PPP贷款，加强失业救济金和其他关怀法案条款，包括2020年净营业亏损的“搬回”，以收回往年支付的公司税。
T.hese programs clearly contributed to the strong recovery in the third quarter where GDP rose by 33.1 percent. However, much of this fiscal stimulus has been fading away and is unlikely to be replaced until after Inauguration Day.
In addition, creditors have extended forbearance arrangements to debtors through much of 2020. At the federal level, debt obligations associated with student debt and many mortgages were eligible for deferment. Equally important, financial institutions and the owners of commercial real estate extended forbearance to their debtors as well. As we move into 2021, it remains a bit of an open question as to how well debtors will be able to service existing obligations when forbearance agreements expire.
经济政策很少是独立于political climate — 2020 and 2021 are no different. The apparent election of Joe Biden as the 46th president will shift economic policy — and not only in terms of the response to the pandemic. It seems highly likely that a President Biden will revisit trade deals executed during President Trump’s tenure. In addition, we will likely see reversals in regulatory policy, particularly as it relates to environmental issues and regulation of financial institutions.
在2020年的运动期间，候选人拜登表示，他预计税收税法的变化将增加公司和个人收入的最高边际税率。如果实施，公司税率的增加将在特朗普主席下逆转35％至21％。将正在审查包括资本收益的个人所得税税率，将正在审查。
当预示招标总统下的政策转变时，将监测高级政策职位所提名的人的背景将是重要的。早期约会可能是以自我识别的进展者更加调味（且可能更适中）候选人的偏好。但是，在建立他的团队时，拜登可能会向各种民主选区提供“点头”。
T.he appointment of Janet Yellen to Treasury may signal a more moderate approach to tax reform than some candidates had advocated. However, the selection of John Kerry to serve as Special Envoy for Climate, signals a likely reentry into the Paris Accord and potentially other environmental policies that could have significant impact on the manufacturing sector. As off this writing, the top posts at Labor and Commerce remain unclear, the later playing an important role in trade policy.
Finally, despite the apparent victory by Joe Biden in the presidential race, a “blue wave” never materialized and the Democrats lost seats in the U.S. House. Further, poll-defying victories by Susan Collins (ME), Joni Ernst (IA) and Thom Tillis (NC), ensured that the Republican control at least half the seats in the Senate. While the outcome of two runoff elections in Georgia will play a pivotal role, it is also likely that several moderate Democrats could cross party line on legislation seen as too aggressive.
As 2020 moves toward an end, the development of several vaccines and the resolution of the presidential elections paves the path for more economic clarity in 2021. Such clarity is necessary if the corporate sector is to deploy capital and rebuild payrolls to pre-pandemic levels.
Editor’s Notes:本文出现在Textileworld.com上由合成纱线和面料协会（SYFA）提供，并在一系列文章中与SYFA成员分享，旨在使其成员在一段时间内的互动受到严重限制的时间内和会议取消了。
SYFA is a non-profit organization comprised of individuals affiliated with the synthetic yarn and fiber industry. SYFA members represent a wide variety of organizations including fiber producers, texturizers, staple yarn manufacturers, fabric producers for the apparel, automotive, upholstery, and industrial markets; raw material suppliers, equipment manufacturers, universities, and service providers related to the industry.
Dr. Roger Tutterow, is a professor of Economics at Kennesaw State University where he holds the Henssler Financial Endowed Chair. He has served as a consultant to a variety of businesses and is a frequent speaker at SYFA events.
2021年3月19日
