The past few weeks were weeks of great shocks on the financial front, which has an impact on the cotton market in general and for the traders in particular. Falling raw metal prices, problems on the U.S. stock market, and especially the now “not protected” Swiss Franc(See “The Rupp Report: You May Call It Faith，”纺织世界.com, January 20, 2015)是情况的原因。
根据英国的棉花贸易商plexus棉花有限公司的说法，“凭借所有这些脱位，也就不足为奇，许多交易者更喜欢搬到场边，等待雾气清除。”
让我们看一下几周前的情况。
Plexus Cotton stated in its January 15, 2015, Market Report that: “NY futures were on the defensive this week, as March fell 107 points to close at 59.49 cents. March traded to its lowest level since November 24 yesterday, getting to within 13 points of its 58.53 cents contract low, as negative vibes from outside markets overshadowed otherwise fairly constructive developments on the cotton front.
“Speculative selling into scale down trade buying seemed to once again be the main feature this week. This was already the case during the week of December 31 to January 6, according to the latest CFTC report, as speculators sold 8,137 contracts net, while index funds reduced their net long by 1,342 contracts. The trade was the lone buyer, acquiring 9,479 contracts.
“Overall speculators moved back to the short side with a 0.7 million bales net short as of January 6, while the trade carried a 4.1 million bales net short position of its own. Index funds had their lowest net long position in exactly three years at just 4.8 million bales, which is a bit surprising considering that there should have been some preemptive buying ahead of this week’s rebalancing. Maybe recent index fund redemptions more than offset any rebalancing efforts.”
招标在等待
1月中旬的丛棉布市场报告指出，据报道，美国12月的零售额为0.9％。Plexus Cotton说，“ USDA供需报告只有很小的变化，这些变化并未改变[其余的世界]位置。”“行生产盈余现在为1,343万包（12月在12月为1,338万），而排队股票的股票略有增加到4548万包（在12月的4,542万美元）。最大的变化发生在中国，在中国，磨坊的使用降低了50万包，导致上个月的365,000套磨坊消耗量下降。在最近的两份报告中，美国农业部将磨坊的使用量减少了160万包，我们认为这太悲观了。”
高地和皮马
Plexus added that a bright spot mid-January was the U.S. export sales report, “which came in at an unexpectedly high 449,100 running bales of Upland and Pima cotton. China and Vietnam accounted for a combined 315,100 bales, and it was nice to see Turkey back with 54,000 bales. There were a total of 17 markets participating, which emphasizes the strength of this report.
“Shipments picked up their pace as well, with a marketing year high of 234,800 running bales leaving the country. Total commitments now amount to 8.4 million statistical bales (84% of the USDA export estimate), whereof 2.8 million bales have so far been shipped.”
In its report the following week — the January 22, 2015, Market Report — Plexus noted that NY futures came under additional pressure, “… as March dropped another 173 points to close at 57.76 cents. Speculative selling continued to weigh on the market, as March fell through the 58.50 cents support level, trading to levels last seen in September 2009.
强劲的美元
总体开放兴趣跃升了10,000多个地块。根据Plexus的说法，跳高的原因是额外的销售额外销售，“投机者缩减贸易购买规模”。
“棉花市场仍然是由ne主导gative vibes on the macro front, as deflation fears are spreading and the money crowd is scrambling for safe havens,” Plexus Cotton continued in the report dated January 22. “With the U.S. economy currently performing better than its counterparts across the two oceans, the U.S. has seen a large influx of capital, which has boosted the U.S. dollar and put a strong bid under the U.S. bond and stock markets.” According to Plexus Cotton, the announcement by the European Central Bank to print 60 billion Euros per month starting in March “has only exacerbated the move into the dollar.”
美国棉花短缺（？）
Plexus指出，美国目前的统计位置是“供应量为1,850万包，迄今为止，在840万包出口承诺和380万包国内行业的包装之间已经承诺了1220万包。从理论上讲，这留下了630万包出售的包，其中约有580万包是高地的，而PIMA为50万。但是，在580万包陆地上，我们需要保留至少250万包，以覆盖8月至10月之间的国内和外国磨坊，这使得从现在到营销年底的可用性下降到仅330万包大约330万包。
Plexus说：“那不是很多棉花，考虑到大多数工厂在第二和第三季度仍然开放。由于巴西和澳大利亚的总包装比一年前少了290万包，因此在今年春季和夏季，机器挑选的棉花的供应可能会变得非常紧张。此外，预计下个赛季的美国种植将下降约11-12％。”
Continuing into the Plexus Cotton Market Report from January 29, 2015, NY futures regained ground, “as March soared 181 points to close at 59.57 cents. Continued strong demand for U.S. cotton has lifted the futures market to a two-week high, with March closing in on the 60 cents level. From a technical perspective, the market has maneuvered itself into an interesting position, with the 40- and 50-day moving averages looming less than half a cent above today’s close and with the weekly continuation chart about to break out of a downtrend channel dating back to last summer. Given the large outright spec short position it may therefore only be a matter of time until some major buy stops get triggered.”
The Global Situation
“… China holds around 58 percent of the massive global stockpile of 108.6 million bales, but the price plateau in China is some 35 cents higher than in the rest of the world,” explained Plexus Cotton. “Given this large price differential, China is not likely to offer any of its cotton to the ROW — quite to the contrary! China is expected to remain a net importer in the foreseeable future, though at a slower pace than in recent years.”
最后的市场报告1月继续说:“…the stock-to-use ratio of 60 percent is still well within its 5-year range of between 52.2 and 64.7 percent. Considering how tight stocks were at the end of the last two seasons, the extra 6.5 million bales in ROW inventory was a welcome addition that should theoretically prevent another price squeeze going into this spring and summer.
“Mills have shown a strong preference for machine-picked high grades this season, which is why the U.S. has been able to capture so much more business than its competitors. The fact that other machine-picked origins like Brazil and Australia are looking at much smaller crops has also contributed to the strong showing of U.S. exports.”
高地和皮马再次
根据Plexus Cotton的说法，“……美国出口销售报告以571,900杆的山地和PIMA合并为571,900捆。中国和越南再次成为顶级购买者，共有352,500捆捆。该赛季的总承诺现在已上升到940万个统计包，其中340万包已运送出来。”Plexus可以肯定的是：“……美国农业部将不得不调整其目前的出口估算值1000万包，可能要多达一百万包。
“By selling over 1.5 million bales over the last three weeks, the U.S. has tightened its statistical position to a point at which rationing via higher prices becomes likely. Export and domestic commitments already amount to around 13.2 million bales, which leaves only some 4.8 million bales of Upland and 0.5 million bales of Pima available until new crop arrives eight months from now. Of that, domestic mills will need at least 1.0 million bales between August and October to tie them over to new crop.”
Penalty For The Futures Market?
在1月29日的市场报告中，Plexus预测了“……美国市场可以享有自己的生活，而这反过来又将对纽约期货市场产生看涨的影响。根据最新的班级报告，本赛季的可那么性质量量达到69.1％。高地棉花的总供应，包括开头的股票，总计约1,800万个统计包，这将使我们提供约1,240万包可嫩的质量。
“考虑到总承诺已经达到1320万个统计包，因此得出的结论是，如果还没有，那么可招标的成绩可能很快就会短缺。
“Furthermore, with the AWP [average wholesale price] set at 44.99 cents for the coming week (vs. 45.59 cents this week), there is little incentive to redeem or ‘pop’ the six million bales that remain in the subsidy program, which only prolongs the existing tightness in the cash market.”
2015年2月3日
