吉姆·菲利普斯（Jim Phillips），纱线市场编辑
C奥顿价格持续了去年年底开始下跌，现在几乎不超过每磅50美分。与上周相比，截至8月8日的一周的平均点报价降低了428点。
在USDA衡量的七个指定市场中，棉花的基本质量（颜色41，Leaf 4，Staple 34，Mike 35-36和43-36和43-49，强度27.0-28.9和均匀性81.0-81.9）平均为53.47美分一周的每磅，比前一周的57.75降低。一年前的相应一周，同一七个市场的平均水平为每磅84.26。
每日平均报价范围从8月5日星期一的52.73美分的低点到8月8日（星期四）的54.36美分。相比之下，前一周的8,394。ICE十月和解价格以59.54美分结束，而上周为61.84美分。
“No doubt that this downward price pressure is due in large part to cotton sales to China being substantially below the level that was expected in the absence of tariffs,” National Cotton Council (NCC) Chairman Mike Tate said. “On top of that, U.S. cotton has lost market share in China to Brazil and Australia, and pressure is building in the distribution chain as U.S. cotton exports lag and stocks build.”
根据NCC的数据，迄今为止，美国对中国的棉花销售额已减少了超过100万磅的480磅包。泰特说：“我们意识到，特朗普总统正在努力解决长期的市场访问障碍和结构性问题，但我们鼓励政府研究所有选择，以提高美国棉花的全球竞争力。”
特朗普政府最近宣布了一套160亿美元的计划，通过市场便利化计划（MFP），食品购买和分销计划（FPDP）和农业贸易促进计划（ATP）来帮助农民。泰特说，由于美国棉花的经济健康状况恶化，因此这种援助是及时的。他指出，自2018年夏季以来，棉花期货价格上涨了每磅30美分。对于平均收益率的生产商，每英亩的收入减少约250美元。
中国的新纺织品关税？
The U.S. Trade Representative Office’s (USTR) announced in mid-August updates to a proposed 10 percent tariff on approximately $300 billion of Chinese imports. Included in the tariffed goods are textile and footwear. If imposed, it is likely new tariffs on textile products would not likely go into effect until December.
“As U.S. manufacturers that have suffered enormously from China’s illegal IPR activities and state-sponsored export subsidies, we strongly support the administration’s decision to move forward with this next tranche of 301 retaliatory tariffs that will finally cover a significant portion of China’s exports in our sector,” said Kim Glas, NCTO President and CEO. “We also believe that the inclusion of products that are within significant Chinese employment sectors, like finished apparel, will substantially increase the administration’s negotiating leverage with the Chinese to address systemic trade reforms that are needed. Any such settlement must include short-and long-term reforms that eliminate China’s predatory trade practices in key industrial sectors across the board, such as textiles and apparel.”
利率和消费者支出
有几个新因素可能会先保存纱线和其他纺织品的订单，美联储在7月下旬投票，将联邦资金利率降低到2％至2.25％，这是多年来的首次削减。当这种速度降低时，它将传递给消费者，降低消费者借贷成本并鼓励经济增长。
其次，消费者的信心再次成为上升。会议委员会的消费者信心索引®在6月下降后7月反弹。该指数现在为135.7（1985 = 100），高于6月的124.3。根据消费者对当前业务和劳动力市场状况的评估，当前情况指数从164.3增加到170.9。根据消费者对收入，业务和劳动力市场状况的短期前景的期望指数，从上个月的97.6增加到本月的112.2。
“After a sharp decline in June, driven by an escalation in trade and tariff tensions, Consumer Confidence rebounded in July to its highest level this year,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers are once again optimistic about current and prospective business and labor market conditions. In addition, their expectations regarding their financial outlook also improved. These high levels of confidence should continue to support robust spending in the near-term despite slower growth in GDP.”
2019年8月
