By Jim Phillips, Yarn Market Editor
Nearly 400 years ago,an English theologian named Thomas Fuller first wrote the words, “It’s always darkest before dawn.” From the reality of 2020, to the forecasts for the remainder of 2021, perhaps at no time in U.S. history have such words been more appropriate.
Even as vaccinations against COVID-19 accelerate, new outbreaks are occurring — largely in states and cities that have rescinded mandatory mask ordinances and reduced social distancing requirements. The CDC estimates that nearly 600,000 Americans will have lost their lives to the pandemic by the end of April.
同时，疫苗接种率继续增加。COVID-19疫苗分配于12月14日在美国开始。
of March, more than 147 million doses have been administered, fully vaccinating over 53.5 million people or 16.1 percent of the total U.S. population. In many states, vaccination stages have escalated much more quickly than expected. Most initially thought it would take until late Spring to get through Stages 1a and 1b. However, as of the end of March more than a dozen states are making — or preparing to make — vaccines available to all adults.
As a result, those who look toward the future with expert eyes are making aggressive — even staggering — projections about U.S economic growth the year. Economists at Goldman Sachs, for example, project GDP to grow at a rate not seen in this country for70 years. In a note to its clients, the company wrote, “We have raised our GDP forecast to reflect the latest fiscal policy news and now expect 8 percent growth in 2021 (Q4/Q4) and an unemployment rate of4 percent at end-2021.”
The last time U.S. GDP grew at 8 percent was 1951. Goldman Sachs’ prediction is more aggressive than most. The average prediction among Wall Street analysts is in the range of 4.5 to 5 percent.
Consumers are also optimistic about the economy. A recent release from the Conference Board shows that the Consumer Confidence Index® surged in March to its highest reading in a year, after a modest increase in February. The Index now stands at 109.7 (1985=100), up from 90.4 in February. The Present Situation Index —based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions — climbed from 89.6 to 110.0. The Expectations Index — based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions — also improved, from 90.9 last month to 109.6 in March.
会议委员会经济指标高级总监Lynn Franco说：“消费者的信心提高到自2020年3月大流行以来的最高水平。”“消费者对当前状况及其短期前景的评估得到了显着改善，这表明经济增长在未来几个月内可能会进一步加强。消费者的新乐观情绪增强了他们对房屋，汽车和几种大型物品的购买意图。但是，短期内的通货膨胀率上升的担忧很可能是由于泵价格上涨，并且可能在未来几个月内减轻支出意图。”
Business Gaining Steam In Fibers, Yarns, Fabrics
Economic growth is already apparent in U.S. fiber, yarn and fabric mills. While output for 2020 was down, significant growth was apparent in the last several months of the year, said NCTO Chairman David Roberts in his recent “State of the U.S. Textile Industry” address. “I’m happy to report that, at least anecdotally, business is coming back at
a fast clip in the first quarter of this year, as orders continue to bounce back in line with rising consumer demand and retail sales.”
NCTO的主要目的是显着增加美国个人防护设备（PPE）的生产。To that end, NCTO recently announced that the Biden Administration has awarded contracts to Parkdale Mills and Ferrara Manufacturing Inc., following through on the president’s pledge to procure millions of fully Made in America face masks for community health centers, food pantries and soup kitchens across the country. A third contract is expected to be awarded to a small business early next week.
Gastonia, N.C.-based Parkdale Mills, the nation’s largest cotton yarn spinner, and Ferrara Manufacturing, a tailored clothing company based in New York City’s garment center, are to manufacture more than 17 million reusable masks. The government said it could purchase up to a maximum of 22.2 million masks under the contracts. The masks will be Berry compliant and, as a result, 100-percent U.S.-made.
2021年3月/4月
