Sometimes it is not easy to understand global markets. On the one side, people from Main Street are complaining about never-ending rising costs in everyday life. On the other side, the relevant markets are complaining that prices are too low. At the moment, this particularly is the case for crude oil and therefore the stuff to fuel heaters around the globe. Hmm.
它可以理解的是，石油生产国 - 可靠地依赖这种珍贵的原材料 - 抱怨当前的低价，而主街的人比购买廉价燃料更加开心。专家，FortuneTellers和（可能）智者在问这个问题：为什么这一切？另一种原料，棉花呢？这是最新报告，国际棉花咨询委员会（廉政公署）写道，棉花价格低的棉花价格可能是一个长期的问题？为什么？
Production Surplus
Rupp报告has informed its readers more recently about volatile cotton prices. Since last spring when they were above 90 cents per pound (cents/lb), international cotton prices have fallen to under 70 cents/lb in December. To counter low prices, cotton consumption is forecast to increase by 925,000 tons to 24.4 million tons in 2014-15, after falling 1 percent to 23.5 million tons in 2013-14. “Lower international and domestic prices are expected to bolster consumption in China by 6 percent to just under eight million tons,” said a recent press release from the ICAI. “The contraction in China’s demand for cotton yarn imports is expected to cause India’s cotton consumption growth to slow to 4 percent reaching 5.3 million tons. This is down from 5 percent in 2013/14 and 14 percent in 2012/13 when demand for Indian yarn exports was much stronger.
“尽管本赛季棉花消费预期增长，但仍然预期了170万吨的世界产量盈余，”廉政公署新闻稿仍在继续。“这将使2014/15世界末日股价为2130万吨，从2013/14年度增长9％，2009/10年增加了147％，股票达到15年的低位。中国在2011年开始其储备政策的25年之前的世界平均股票利用比例为47％。然而，2014/15年度的终止股票的数量将占预计消费的87％，并在本赛季价格上重视价格。即使在未来几年内承担合理的产量和更高的消费，也需要几季为大量的库存，以达到更可持续的水平，而市场调整时的棉花价格可能会持续。“
Yes, But …
The ICAC report continues: “However, world production is estimated down 1 percent to 26.1 million tons due to reductions in China and the Southern Hemisphere. As a result of the contraction in area caused by changes in its cotton policy and falling domestic cotton prices, China’s cotton production is projected down 7 percent to 6.4 million tons. In response to low world prices, Brazil’s production is forecast to fall by 10 percent to 1.5 million tons. Meanwhile, low prices and a significant drought are expected to reduce Australia’s production by 47 percent to 470,000 tons. India’s production is expected to remain stable at 6.8 million tons due to less favorable monsoon weather this season despite an expansion in the cotton area by 5 percent to 12.3 million hectares. However, its production will surpass China’s by over 300,000 tons, making it the largest cotton producer in 2014/15. Production in the United States is looking to rebound 23 percent to 3.5 million tons, partially offsetting declines in the other major producing countries.
How is the global situation? Have a look at the table:
United Kingdom-based Plexus Cotton Ltd., one of The Rupp Report’s preferable sources for cotton news, said in its Market Report dated January 8, 2015: “NY futures continued to trade sideways last week, with the March contract edging up 29 points to close at 60.56 cents. So far, around 7.6 million bales have been freed from the loan, which means that including beginning stocks of 2.5 million bales there are now 10.1 million bales outside the government loan system. U.S. export sales ended the year on a firm note, as 158,800 running bales of Upland and Pima cotton were sold during the week of December 26 to January 1. China was once again the major force in the market with 78,500 running bales, followed by Vietnam with 34,700 bales. Total commitments for the current marketing year now amount to 7.9 million statistical bales, whereof 2.6 million bales have so far been exported.”
It’s The Market. What Else?
可能对所有这些UPS和Downs的最佳解释非常简单：它是市场，在大多数情况下，这决定了价格。今天，当欧佩克弱势时，一些国家能够钻孔或使用压裂，以获得比其他国家更少的货币更少，那么他们希望拥有更具竞争力的价格。
The January 8 Plexus Market Report states: … the magnitude of this drop in energy prices — which includes other energy sources such as natural gas and coal — is mindboggling! When crude oil was trading at US$100/barrel, the global annual production value amounted to around US$3.4 trillion dollars, which means that at US$50/barrel, producers are losing about US$1.7 trillion dollars in revenue per annum, while users are saving that same amount. About half of global oil production crosses borders and therefore the trade value would drop by around US$850 billion dollars a year if the price of crude were to remain near current levels. Countries like the U.S. and China are both big producers as well as importers, which means that certain sectors of the economy will take a hit.”
如果中国人坐在大约1000万加棉花，并停止买，那么结果也很清楚。丛林估计，到本赛季结束，中国以外持有的股市将增加20％，达到近900万吨，最近30年来的第二大卷（2004-05之后）。这些增加的大部分都将由生产国家持有，并且可能会导致世界出口到下降15％至750万吨。
然而，在全球消费者的口袋里拥有1.7万亿美元并不糟糕。让我们希望今年将花费这笔钱，也许是在米兰的ITMA欧洲;或者至少在购买更多的棉花产品！
2015年1月13日
